Iraq is experiencing a significant rise in temperatures and frequent heat waves, increasing exposure to heat stress due to these extreme temperatures. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of temperature variations in Iraq using two temperature indices: the standardized temperature index and the heat index, in addition to a spatial analysis of heat stress using a geographic information system (GIS). Air temperature and relative humidity data on a daily timescale for the period 1981-2024 from NASA POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) were used. The results clearly demonstrate the impact of rising temperatures resulting from climate change. Trend analysis of the heat index indicated a significant increase in heat stress across Iraq. Furthermore, the spatial analysis of the heat index showed a significant increase in extreme index values, confirming that northern Iraq is more affected by climate change than other regions. In this study, a mathematical equation was developed to estimate the heat index using gene expression programming to reduce the steps and time required to calculate the heat index using traditional methods. The equation proved its efficiency, as the value of the coefficient of determination was 0.99 in the training phase and 0.98 in the model validation phase.

Iraq is experiencing a significant rise in temperatures and frequent heat waves, increasing exposure to heat stress due to these extreme temperatures. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of temperature variations in Iraq using two temperature indices: the standardized temperature index and the heat index, in addition to a spatial analysis of heat stress using a geographic information system (GIS). Air temperature and relative humidity data on a daily timescale for the period 1981-2024 from NASA POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) were used. The results clearly demonstrate the impact of rising temperatures resulting from climate change. Trend analysis of the heat index indicated a significant increase in heat stress across Iraq. Furthermore, the spatial analysis of the heat index showed a significant increase in extreme index values, confirming that northern Iraq is more affected by climate change than other regions. In this study, a mathematical equation was developed to estimate the heat index using gene expression programming to reduce the steps and time required to calculate the heat index using traditional methods. The equation proved its efficiency, as the value of the coefficient of determination was 0.99 in the training phase and 0.98 in the model validation phase.